On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs designed to address trade imbalances and bolster domestic manufacturing. These measures include a universal baseline tariff of 10% alongside higher, country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs aimed at nations with substantial trade surpluses with the U.S.These newly imposed tariffs carry significant economic consequences, particularly for…
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I am pleased to announce the publication of The Alternative Investment Handbook: A Comprehensive Guide to Analysis and Valuation Methods. This 470-page volume represents the culmination of two years of extensive research into alternative investment vehicles and their practical applications. The handbook provides an in-depth examination of three critical sectors: private credit markets, real estate…
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In light of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent announcement indicating a downward revision of U.S. economic growth to 1.7% and an upward adjustment of the inflation forecast to 2.7% for this year, investors are increasingly concerned about the potential onset of stagflation—a scenario characterized by sluggish economic growth and elevated inflation.Constructing a resilient investment…
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As we progress through 2025, the U.S. economy is encountering a series of indicators that warrant close attention. Recent data and projections highlight potential headwinds that could influence economic stability and growth. Conclusion: Monitoring the Path AheadWhile a recession is not yet certain, these indicators collectively suggest that the U.S. economy is facing significant challenges.…
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The market, like any complex adaptive system, tends to create its own momentum. What we’ve witnessed since January 2025 – and particularly during yesterday’s sharp decline on March 10 – offers a fascinating look at how internal market dynamics can amplify external shocks. Understanding the Market’s Internal State Before examining the external triggers, let’s consider…
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The market, like any complex adaptive system, tends to create its own momentum. What we’ve witnessed since January 2025 – and particularly during yesterday’s sharp decline on March 10 – offers a fascinating look at how internal market dynamics can amplify external shocks. Understanding the Market’s Internal State Before examining the external triggers, let’s consider…
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Ever wonder why your carefully planned trades sometimes feel as unpredictable as New York weather? I did too, after a friend’s question about market cycles sent me down a rabbit hole comparing a century of Central Park temperatures with stock market data. What I found might change how you think about trading patterns. The Seductive…
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The US national debt just hit $36.22 trillion on February 14, 2025. Here’s a fresh perspective on solving it:Most discussions about tackling the national debt focus on cutting spending or raising taxes. But there’s another angle we’re not talking about enough: growing our way out of it.The traditional path would be population growth. But let’s…
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The raw numbers are staggering: America’s national debt has hit $36.1 trillion. Of this total, $28.8 trillion is held by the public, while $7.3 trillion represents intergovernmental holdings—money the government essentially owes to itself. As a financial markets analyst of 25 years, I’m often asked about America’s national debt. The number itself—$36.1 trillion—is almost incomprehensible.…
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Using P/E ratios as a market gauge is smart thinking, and your instinct to diversify is even smarter. Private credit has emerged as an increasingly attractive option, with the market growing to approximately $1.5 trillion at the start of 2024.The NMG Income Fund’s 10% annual return, distributed quarterly, might catch your eye – and for…
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